Abstract:

This NERTO project conducted an initial evaluation of FIMBox flood-inundation performance in Puerto Rico using National Water Model retrospective streamflow. Example-basin tests, hydrofabric exploration, input preparation, and a Puerto Rico domain-selection adaptation supported four regional applications and a Hurricane Maria case with 20 hourly depth/inundation pairs. Original maps and high-water-mark sampling supported exploratory evaluation. During deliverable preparation, an additional comparison used USGS recorded height above ground and maximum modeled depth in the archived window. Of 57 eligible riverine marks, 43 had usable modeled values: mean absolute error was 6.47 m, root mean square error was 8.10 m, and mean signed difference was +6.47 m. These results show substantial positive differences in the selected sample. Additional NWS warning overlap supplied event context, not accuracy evidence. Approximate observed ground heights, terrain representation, missing samples, and partial event coverage limit generalization. The work provides a first assessment of model behavior to inform NOAA-aligned flood-mapping evaluation and model improvement.

The results presented are from the NOAA EPP CSC NERTO graduate internship project conducted under the mentorship of Derek Giardino Office of Water Prediction. This NERTO experience aligns with the NOAA Cooperative Science Center in CESSRST-II, supporting the Center’s goal of conducting NOAA mission-aligned collaborative research to understand and predict changes in weather and atmosphere, land and water, oceans and coasts. This project, titled National Water Model Assessment In Puerto Rico, addressed the research question: How does flood inundation mapping model FIMBox performs under an extreme weather event in Puerto Rico?. The work provides value to the scientific community and program stakeholders by providing a first assessment of FIMBox performance in Puerto Rico. Through this internship, the student deepened their understanding of NOAA mission areas and gained enhanced skills in land-and-water research skills in modeling, programming, GIS, troubleshooting, and scientific communication. Fieldwork experience included assisting USGS and NWS with river cross-section measurements in Caguas and Ciales/Morovis.