Abstract:

Across the US, many people experience unhealthy levels of air pollution, including pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Exposure to high concentrations of these pollutants can have severe negative impacts on public health. Air quality forecasting enables the National Weather Service (NWS) to provide predictive alerts that inform the public of actions they can take to reduce exposure to poor air quality. Wildfires are a major source of PM_2.5 emissions, and this work aims to quantify how assimilating NOAA satellite-based fire emissions into air quality models can improve the accuracy of air quality alerts. Improved accuracy of air quality alerts can lower morbidity and mortality associated with smoke exposure. This is evaluated by comparing outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry(WRF-Chem) simulations run with and without satellite-based fire emissions. A health impact function is used to estimate PM_2.5-attributable asthma emergency department (ED) visits and premature mortalities for situations in which air quality alerts were and were not provided based on the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) defined by the EPA. The public health benefits of air quality alerts are quantified using previously published estimates of PM_2.5 exposure reduction due to individual behavior modification. It is found that assimilating fire emissions into air quality models increases the number of alert days and provides increased opportunities for the public to reduce PM_2.5 exposure. These reductions in exposure lead to substantial public health benefits through reductions in PM_2.5-attributableasthma ED visits and premature mortalities. The economic value associated with these public health benefits is around $24.6 billion annually, which exceeds the operational cost of the JPSS mission and demonstrates a positive return on investment (ROI).

The results presented are from the NOAA EPP CSC NERTO graduate internship project conducted under the mentorship of Dr. Shobha Kondragunta, NOAA NESDIS STAR. This NERTO experience aligns with the NOAA Cooperative Science Center in CESSRST-II, supporting the Center’s goal of conducting NOAA mission-aligned collaborative research to understand and predict changes in weather and atmosphere, land and water, oceans and coasts. This project, titled Assessing the Impact of NOAA Satellite Fire Products on Air Quality Alerts and Interventions to Prevent Wildfire Smoke Exposure, addressed the research question: How does the assimilation of NOAA-satellite-based fire emissions into air quality models improve the accuracy of air quality alerts and lower mortality associated with smoke exposure? The work provides value to the scientific community and program stakeholders by assessing the public health benefits from integrating satellite-based smoke emissions into air quality models to maximize the return on investment of NOAA satellite missions. Through this internship, the student deepened their understanding of NOAA mission areas and gained enhanced skills in coding, data analysis, and scientific communication.