Forecast and previsibility of balloon trajectories

in the low troposphere









Fig1. Aeroclipper system

Fig2. Observed Pressurized balloon trajectories

Fig3. Small Pressurized Balloon



In the framework of ocean-atmosphere coupling studies in the Indian ocean and African monsoon studies in the Guinea gulf, the LMD and the CNES (Franch Space Agency) must release instrumented drifting balloons in the lower troposphere. These balloons, while following the air masses displacements, give a description of atmospheric dynamics on a broad range of scale. First of all, one of the goals of this research project consists of simulating trajectories of these drifting balloons in order to optimize the launching strategy during the field phase experiment. Indeed, scientific interpretation of experimental results depends on both quality and quantity of measurements. However, the number of balloons is limited because of their relatively high cost. Moreover, the use of balloons has a lot of constraints (flights far away continents, inhabited regions and airports). Because of these constraints, launching decisions become difficult. From meteorological predictions, trajectories computations of drifting balloons can help this type of decision. That is why, an operational tool to help the launching strategy during experiments is carried out. Besides, data obtained during the experimental measurements will allow us to test our numerical models and to compare observed trajectories (Fig 2) with simulated ones. Next, the experimental results analysis can allow to obtain a description of the flow regime and its temporal evolution (to show evidence of small scales local circulations).

Keywords : Balloon, Trajectory, Forecasts, ECMWF.