Ariel Avgi

Ariel Avgi
Undergraduate, CCNY (Graduated, 2019)


The City College of New York
Steinman Hall, Rm. CM7
160 Convent Avenue
New York, NY 10031

Cohort 1 

Theme 3: Water Prediction & Ecosystem Services 

Advisor: Indrani Pal 

Expected Graduation: May 2019 

Degree: Applied Mathematics

Research Title: Characterizing Concurrent Hot and Dry Spell Events Across the Crucial Breadbasket Regions

Research Synopsis:
Extreme hot and dry spells in major growing regions have far reaching impacts on global food production. Observed data suggests that there has been a substantial increase in the number of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over the last fifty years—conditions that prove devastating for crop growth. This study assesses the incidence of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves on wheat croplands across the major breadbasket regions around the world between 1950 and 2014. Maps were produced for spring and winter growing seasons, which represent the global distribution of wheat croplands in the years that experienced the greatest number of concurrent extreme events during the history of the available data (e.g. gridded daily surface temperature, SPEI and PDSI). By assessing the global distribution of wheat producing locations affected by the most extreme incidents of concurrent hot and dry spell conditions, we aim to present a better diagnosis of (1) the characteristics of extreme weather conditions relevant for global wheat productivity around the globe and (2) the associated larger-scale climate variability.